@InProceedings{ScarabelloSoZiVaMoKrRa:2019:EsImCl,
               author = "Scarabello, Marluce da Cruz and Soterroni, Aline Cristina and 
                         Zilli, M{\'a}rcia and Valin, Hugo and Mostnier, Aline and 
                         Kraxner, Florian and Ramos, Fernando Manoel",
          affiliation = "{Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto 
                         Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)} and {International Institute for 
                         Applied Systems Analysis} and {International Institute for Applied 
                         Systems Analysis} and {International Institute for Applied Systems 
                         Analysis} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)}",
                title = "Estimating the impact of climate change on Brazil’s planted 
                         forests sector",
                 year = "2019",
         organization = "Congresso Mundial da IUFRO",
             abstract = "Brazil has 9.85 million hectares of planted forests, grown mainly 
                         in the South and Southeast regions. These forests have species of 
                         the genera Eucalyptus and Pinus, which represent 93% of the total. 
                         In 2017, 139.83 million cubic meters of log wood for paper, 
                         cellulose and other purposes were produced, with a production 
                         value of several billions of US dollars. However, projected 
                         advances of the planted forests sector in Brazil can be directly 
                         impacted by climate change and resulting biophysical effects. 
                         Here, we quantify these impacts using GLOBIOM-Brazil, a global 
                         bottom-up partial equilibrium model of competition for land use 
                         between agriculture, forestry, and bioenergy sectors, which 
                         includes various refinements reflecting Brazils specificities. It 
                         computes consumption and trade for 30 regions of the world; and 
                         production and land use at a 50 km grid resolution in Brazil and 
                         250 km in other regions for the most important crops, wood, and 
                         animal products. Land use change depends on the feedback between 
                         agricultural demand and biophysical and regulatory constraints on 
                         land. Climate change impacts are incorporated in the model by 
                         climate shocks on future crop, grass and biomass productivities as 
                         projected by Global Gridded Crop Growth Models simulated for five 
                         Global Climate Models (HadGEM-ES, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, IPSL-CM5A-LR, 
                         GFDL-ESM2M, NorESM1-M) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6 
                         and RCP 8.5). Simulations through the year 2050 indicate a slight 
                         decrease of the biomass of planted forests in all Brazilian biomes 
                         but the Pampa, where the conditions for planted forests are 
                         projected to improve.",
  conference-location = "Curitiba, PR",
      conference-year = "29 set. - 05 out.",
             language = "en",
                  ibi = "8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3U5UMSB",
                  url = "http://urlib.net/ibi/8JMKD3MGP3W34R/3U5UMSB",
           targetfile = "scarabello_estimating.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "30 abr. 2024"
}